WHEN: A Wavelet-DTW Hybrid Attention Network for Heterogeneous Time Series Analysis.pdf

A local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) case confirmed on June 11, 2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing, China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case. Non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were used to contain the source in Xinfadi (XFD) market. To rapidly control the outbreak, both traditional and newly introduced NPIs including large‐scale management of high‐risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) PCR‐based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID‐19 outbreak in Beijing’s XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions. A modified susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model was developed and applied to evaluate a range of different scenarios from the public health perspective. Two outcomes were measured: magni‐ tude of transmission (i.e., number of cases in the outbreak) and endpoint of transmission (i.e., date of containment). The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Our results indicated that a 3 to 14 day delay in the identification of XFD as the infection source and initia‐ tion of NPIs would have caused a 3 to 28‐fold increase in total case number (31–77 day delay in containment). A failure to implement the quarantine scheme employed in the XFD outbreak for defined key population would have caused a fivefold greater number of cases (73 day delay in containment). Similarly, failure to implement the quaran‐ tine plan executed in the XFD outbreak for close contacts would have caused twofold greater transmission (44 day delay in containment). Finally, failure to implement expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population would have yielded 1.6‐fold greater transmission and a 32 day delay to containment.